Tue, Dec 2, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Ottawa Senators 2, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 15 | 06 | 17 | 00 | 218 |
| NYI | 09 | 16 | 19 | 14 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:04OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Alex Chiasson · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 18:26NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 1:07NYIRyan StromeSHAssists: Thomas Hickey, Brian Strait · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
- P3 11:14OTTClarke MacArthurAssists: Mark Stone, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 3:06NYIThomas HickeyGWGAssists: Matt Donovan, Brock Nelson · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 19:07OTTKyle Turris: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:38NYINick Leddy: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:25OTTAlex Chiasson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Turris – Stone12:42
xG 0.45–0.19 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Chiasson – Zibanejad10:01
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Michalek – Smith – Lazar11:07
xG 0.28–0.35 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Legwand – Neil – Condra8:53
xG 0.09–0.52 (14%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Ceci3:27
xG 0.14–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen2:15
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson3:13
xG 0.06–0.04 (63%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Strome8:58
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Kulemin – Tavares12:38
xG 0.61–0.43 (59%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas5:48
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Bailey10:54
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – Hickey16:42
xG 0.76–0.49 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Hamonic – de Haan15:54
xG 0.77–0.53 (59%)attempts 18–18goals 0–1
- Donovan – Leddy14:27
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).