Tue, Dec 2, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Philadelphia Flyers 1, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 116 | 06 | 07 | 129 |
| SJS | 06 | 113 | 18 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:00PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Scott Laughton, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 17:44SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Tommy Wingels, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 19:48SJSMatt NietoGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:18SJSJames Sheppard: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:58PHISean Couturier: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:58SJSBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:57PHINicklas Grossmann: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:50SJSJustin Braun: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl14:51
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Rinaldo – Bellemare2:21
xG 0.04–0.02 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Umberger – VandeVelde – Bellemare5:29
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier3:30
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Schenn12:19
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Schultz – Coburn18:23
xG 0.33–0.61 (35%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Streit – Grossmann15:33
xG 0.25–0.60 (29%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Hertl8:06
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Wingels – Nieto4:21
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Sheppard – McGinn – Nieto2:10
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Desjardins – Scott4:20
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Irwin10:25
xG 0.67–0.18 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon15:48
xG 1.05–0.80 (57%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun19:00
xG 0.37–0.31 (55%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).