Wed, Dec 3, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Montréal Canadiens 1, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 06 | 04 | 19 | 119 |
| MIN | 116 | 114 | 05 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 12:10MINJason PominvilleGWGAssists: Christian Folin, Zach Parise · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 19:02MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: David Desharnais, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:23MINKyle Brodziak: Holding2 min
- P1 6:49MTLJiri Sekac: Interference2 min
- P2 9:54MTLAlexei Emelin: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:57MTLBryan Allen: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:00MTLAndrei Markov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:10MTLEric Tangradi: Boarding5 min
- P3 6:10MTLEric Tangradi: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Weise4:39
xG 0.74–0.04 (95%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Tangradi – Weise3:39
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Sekac3:16
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Sekac4:28
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Gilbert6:38
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Emelin3:28
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Markov2:56
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Coyle11:29
xG 0.74–0.25 (75%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Carter – Haula – Fontaine7:52
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Vanek – Brodziak – Niederreiter8:47
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund12:49
xG 0.37–0.78 (32%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Folin15:35
xG 0.97–0.38 (72%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon16:18
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Ballard – Prosser9:33
xG 0.10–0.51 (16%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).