Wed, Dec 3, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 2, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 011 | 16 | 00 | 224 |
| WPG | 18 | 011 | 16 | 11 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:33WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:59EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Justin Schultz, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 1:31EDMTeddy PurcellAssists: David Perron, Boyd Gordon · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 16:54WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Mark Stuart, Jacob Trouba · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 0:17WPGMathieu PerreaultGWGAssists: Jacob Trouba, Evander Kane · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 18:20WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:20EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:57WPGAndrew Ladd: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Arcobello won the faceoff against Perreault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Yakupov – Draisaitl12:46
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Pinizzotto – Gazdic – Arcobello5:14
xG 0.02–0.01 (74%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins16:03
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Gordon – Purcell – Perron11:51
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Fayne10:14
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Fayne5:42
xG 0.13–0.03 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ference – Petry6:05
xG 0.26–0.16 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little16:46
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Peluso4:18
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Frolik – Lowry – Scheifele13:47
xG 0.15–0.21 (43%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bogosian – Chiarot10:51
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Pardy – Postma5:01
xG 0.03–0.03 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba15:46
xG 0.37–0.50 (43%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).