Wed, Dec 3, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Anaheim Ducks 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 04 | 310 | 113 | 08 | 1 | 435 |
| ANA | 04 | 319 | 16 | 04 | 2 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:46PHIMichael RafflAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 8:14ANACam FowlerAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Frederik Andersen · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:46PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Brayden Schenn, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 10:47PHIR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Nick Schultz, Sean Couturier · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 11:15ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Corey Perry · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 19:06ANASami VatanenAssists: Patrick Maroon · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 14:58ANAPatrick MaroonPPAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.44 xG3–4
- P3 19:57PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Scott Laughton, Andrew MacDonald · Tip-in, 0.26 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 2. ANA Jakob Silfverberg scored
- 3. PHI Sean Couturier scored
- 4. ANA Corey Perry scored
- 5. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:10ANARene Bourque: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:35PHIChris VandeVelde: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:07PHIAndrew MacDonald: Interference2 min
- P2 1:05PHIMark Streit: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:25PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:25ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:59ANAMat Clark: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:07PHIZac Rinaldo: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:20PHIAndrew MacDonald: Delaying game2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Smith-Pelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl12:03
xG 0.90–0.54 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier7:18
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Rinaldo – Bellemare6:05
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Laughton8:18
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Coburn12:58
xG 0.71–0.27 (72%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Streit – MacDonald4:40
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Schenn6:27
xG 0.19–0.42 (30%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestJackman – Kesler – Maroon2:57
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Jackman – Thompson – Maroon4:36
xG 0.26–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Smith-Pelly9:18
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey9:57
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen9:13
xG 0.71–0.24 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Vatanen – Lindholm2:51
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – Manson12:19
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).