Thu, Dec 4, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 113 | 17 | 225 |
| OTT | 04 | 15 | 012 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:45NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.31 xG1–0
- P2 15:07OTTMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, David Legwand · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 13:33NYICasey CizikasGWGAssists: Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:33NYIMichael Grabner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:39OTTCurtis Lazar: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:41OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:53NYIBrock Nelson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:36NYIBrian Strait: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:28OTTAlex Chiasson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Kulemin – Tavares12:55
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Conacher9:47
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Lee – Nelson – Strome10:18
xG 0.07–0.29 (19%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Grabner10:50
xG 0.19–0.43 (30%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – Hickey17:46
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- de Haan – Reinhart12:17
xG 0.21–0.28 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Donovan – Leddy15:13
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad13:32
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone11:07
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Michalek – Chiasson – Lazar10:59
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Legwand – Neil – Condra6:59
xG 0.01–0.11 (11%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Ceci5:01
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Borowiecki3:14
xG 0.18–0.06 (76%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci9:35
xG 0.06–0.01 (86%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).