Thu, Dec 4, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 112 | 03 | 224 |
| DET | 310 | 010 | 29 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58DETDarren HelmAssists: Kyle Quincey, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 4:13DALColton SceviourAssists: Jordie Benn, Jason Demers · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 11:14DETStephen WeissAssists: Riley Sheahan, Tomas Jurco · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P1 18:52DETPavel DatsyukPPGWGAssists: Stephen Weiss, Tomas Tatar · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 14:26DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Trevor Daley, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 7:39DETKyle QuinceyAssists: Riley Sheahan, Stephen Weiss · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 13:07DETDarren HelmAssists: Tomas Tatar, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:27DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:17DALRyan Garbutt: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:55DETDanny DeKeyser: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:38DETStephen Weiss: Interference2 min
- P2 19:30DALCody Eakin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:06DALJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Sceviour – Eakin10:55
xG 0.40–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Cole – Benn – Seguin10:28
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Cole – Spezza – Sceviour2:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Moen – Hemsky4:45
xG 0.06–0.06 (47%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski14:05
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Jokipakka16:59
xG 0.36–0.31 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Demers – Benn14:15
xG 0.26–0.40 (40%)attempts 6–13goals 1–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Sheahan – Jurco7:37
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 13–2goals 2–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening7:45
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar13:56
xG 0.34–0.54 (39%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist12:21
xG 0.12–0.42 (22%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser16:34
xG 0.61–0.43 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 3–0
- Kindl – Smith12:29
xG 0.47–0.38 (55%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Ericsson16:23
xG 0.17–0.52 (24%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).