Thu, Dec 4, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 03 | 05 | 013 |
| TBL | 18 | 314 | 113 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33TBLRadko GudasGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 4:28TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan Callahan, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 5:39TBLBrenden MorrowAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 13:40TBLJason GarrisonAssists: Steven Stamkos, Andrej Sustr · Slap, 0.03 xG0–4
- P3 18:55TBLBrett ConnollyPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–5
Penalties (25)
- P1 3:55TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P2 0:45BUFNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:46TBLTyler Johnson: Holding2 min
- P3 6:42BUFMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:54TBLRyan Callahan: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:54BUFTyson Strachan: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:54TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:54TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:54BUFMike Weber: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:54BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:54TBLBrett Connolly: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:58TBLCedric Paquette: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:58BUFZemgus Girgensons: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:58TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min
- P3 8:58BUFNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:58TBLVictor Hedman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:58BUFNikita Zadorov: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:25BUFCody McCormick: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:25BUFCody McCormick: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:25TBLBrian Boyle: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:25BUFPatrick Kaleta: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:25TBLBrenden Morrow: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:18BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:52BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:17BUFTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Gionta – Mitchell – Flynn12:17
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Stewart – Hodgson – Foligno5:45
xG 0.03–0.24 (10%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- McCormick – Kaleta – Deslauriers4:15
xG 0.02–0.34 (4%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons10:11
xG 0.36–0.82 (31%)attempts 7–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen2:32
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Weber – Zadorov2:31
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Gorges – Myers12:41
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov11:40
xG 0.86–0.24 (78%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Filppula – Connolly – Paquette9:14
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Drouin7:52
xG 0.37–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos10:07
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Sustr12:54
xG 1.11–0.32 (78%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Carle – Gudas14:28
xG 0.76–0.10 (88%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Stralman – Hedman12:55
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).