Thu, Dec 4, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 211 | 13 | 04 | 02 | 1 | 420 |
| FLA | 013 | 319 | 019 | 04 | 0 | 355 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07CBJNick FolignoAssists: Scott Hartnell, Dalton Prout · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 9:51CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Kerby Rychel, Dalton Prout · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 0:51CBJBoone JennerAssists: Kerby Rychel, Cam Atkinson · Snap, 0.19 xG3–0
- P2 2:54FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Nick Bjugstad · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 5:04FLANick BjugstadAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Aaron Ekblad · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 7:31FLANick BjugstadPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Erik Gudbranson · Snap, 0.18 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 2. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
- 3. FLA Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 4. CBJ Matt Calvert stopped
- 5. FLA Brad Boyes stopped
- 6. CBJ Nick Foligno stopped
- 7. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
- 8. CBJ Ryan Johansen scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:57FLANick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:27CBJMichael Chaput: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:20FLAShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:20CBJDalton Prout: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:46CBJJordan Leopold: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:55CBJBoone Jenner: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:50CBJScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:12CBJJames Wisniewski: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:28CBJScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:28FLABrandon Pirri: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Jenner – Rychel8:50
xG 0.38–0.12 (77%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Johansen8:40
xG 0.15–0.27 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Cracknell – Boll – Gibbons4:18
xG 0.42–0.59 (42%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Skille – Calvert – Chaput6:29
xG 0.27–0.62 (30%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Connauton10:25
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Johnson3:47
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Leopold – Savard15:55
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 5–20goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Pirri – Trocheck13:25
xG 0.69–0.17 (80%)attempts 21–5goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau10:33
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 14–3goals 2–1
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky7:31
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Boyes – Jokinen – Bergenheim10:02
xG 0.32–0.42 (44%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Kulikov16:55
xG 0.97–0.32 (75%)attempts 25–9goals 0–2
- Olsen – Gudbranson10:38
xG 0.94–0.35 (73%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Campbell – Ekblad16:19
xG 0.59–0.64 (48%)attempts 27–8goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).