Thu, Dec 4, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 3, Calgary Flames 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 05 | 215 | 19 | 00 | 329 |
| CGY | 07 | 18 | 27 | 13 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:20CGYDennis WidemanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Kris Russell · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 13:23COLMatt DucheneAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 14:21COLNick HoldenAssists: Zach Redmond, Michael Sgarbossa · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 1:14CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: David Jones, Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 14:14COLAlex TanguayAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 18:43CGYDennis WidemanAssists: Kris Russell, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 1:47CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:07COLNick Holden: Interference2 min
- P2 1:57COLNate Guenin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:49CGYMicheal Ferland: Interference2 min
- P2 7:50COLTyson Barrie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jooris won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Landeskog – MacKinnon16:18
xG 0.90–0.38 (70%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Brière – Talbot – Vincour5:48
xG 0.29–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Tanguay – O'Reilly – Duchene12:56
xG 0.33–0.54 (38%)attempts 7–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestRedmond – Stollery7:22
xG 0.44–0.07 (86%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Hejda – Johnson17:53
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Guenin – Barrie14:50
xG 0.36–0.60 (37%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Jooris14:21
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Jones – Glencross – Monahan13:43
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Byron – Ferland – Granlund9:42
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Bouma – Bollig – Baertschi6:33
xG 0.09–0.40 (18%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie18:54
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Engelland – Smid10:40
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Wideman – Russell19:49
xG 0.27–1.19 (19%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).