Fri, Dec 5, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 2, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 14 | 05 | 113 | 222 |
| WPG | 216 | 110 | 311 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:31WPGChris ThorburnAssists: Paul Postma, Adam Pardy · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 9:19COLJarome IginlaAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 12:29WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 19:15WPGAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Ben Chiarot, Bryan Little · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 0:45WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 1:17WPGBryan LittleAssists: Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 10:24COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Zach Redmond, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–5
- P3 13:20WPGDustin ByfuglienUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG2–6
Penalties (17)
- P1 1:04COLKarl Stollery: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:48COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference2 min
- P2 3:39WPGAndrew Ladd: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:39COLCody McLeod: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:48COLMatt Duchene: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 3:59WPGAnthony Peluso: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:46WPGAdam Pardy: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:09COLMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:09COLMax Talbot: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:09COLCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:09WPGAnthony Peluso: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:09WPGJim Slater: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 6:09WPGJim Slater: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:09WPGJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:59COLMichael Sgarbossa: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:59WPGAdam Pardy: Holding2 min
- P3 9:59WPGAdam Pardy: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Perreault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – O'Reilly – Duchene3:52
xG 0.23–0.15 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – O'Reilly – Landeskog2:58
xG 0.08–0.02 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Duchene – MacKinnon2:11
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Brière – Talbot – O'Reilly5:13
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Redmond – Stollery10:49
xG 0.13–0.26 (34%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson10:55
xG 0.24–0.61 (28%)attempts 10–16goals 0–3
- Guenin – Barrie8:42
xG 0.17–1.43 (10%)attempts 5–13goals 1–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little10:17
xG 1.24–0.17 (88%)attempts 12–8goals 3–1
- Frolik – Perreault – Kane13:26
xG 0.92–0.45 (67%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Halischuk – Lowry – Scheifele10:09
xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Peluso3:49
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba14:46
xG 1.60–0.28 (85%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Byfuglien – Chiarot16:10
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Pardy – Postma9:07
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).