Fri, Dec 5, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Montréal Canadiens 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 114 | 211 | 016 | 341 |
| CHI | 212 | 012 | 212 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:13CHIMichal RozsivalAssists: Bryan Bickell, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 18:16CHIBen SmithAssists: Marcus Kruger, Joakim Nordstrom · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 18:42MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 7:58MTLSergei GoncharAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Alexei Emelin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 17:22MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Andrei Markov, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 4:18CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Brad Richards, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
- P3 19:33CHIBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:52CHIAndrew Shaw: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:11MTLSergei Gonchar: Interference2 min
- P2 0:16MTLP.K. Subban: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 1:59CHIBrad Richards: Interference2 min
- P2 13:40CHIMarian Hossa: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:09CHIPatrick Kane: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00MTLAlexei Emelin: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:05MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Weise13:24
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk12:56
xG 0.90–0.43 (67%)attempts 18–11goals 2–1
- Parenteau – Prust – Sekac3:28
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Prust – Tangradi4:11
xG 0.18–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban18:13
xG 1.68–0.56 (75%)attempts 27–15goals 1–1
- Gilbert – Emelin4:47
xG 0.31–0.14 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Weaver – Gilbert5:48
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Kruger – Nordstrom9:17
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Richards – Versteeg – Kane10:44
xG 0.19–0.41 (32%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad12:17
xG 0.30–0.73 (29%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Carcillo – Bickell – Shaw8:41
xG 0.14–0.90 (13%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Keith – Hjalmarsson3:01
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson13:15
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook15:25
xG 0.37–0.61 (37%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).