Sat, Dec 6, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 214 | 09 | 229 |
| PIT | 113 | 112 | 18 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17PITEvgeni MalkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 1:13OTTDavid LegwandPPAssists: Milan Michalek, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:44OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Bobby Ryan, Marc Methot · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 18:03PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Brandon Sutter, Olli Maatta · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 18:10PITChristian EhrhoffGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Craig Adams · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:08PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:23PITZach Sill: Interference5 min
- P1 3:23OTTAlex Chiasson: Instigator2 min
- P1 3:23PITZach Sill: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:23OTTAlex Chiasson: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:23OTTAlex Chiasson: Misconduct10 min
- P1 3:23PITZach Sill: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 5:34OTTCurtis Lazar: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:23OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:51PITChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:04PITSimon Despres: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:04OTTClarke MacArthur: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:19OTTMilan Michalek: Holding2 min
- P2 5:47OTTMarc Methot: Holding2 min
- P2 17:47OTTErik Condra: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:28PITMarc-Andre Fleury: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad4:46
xG 0.39–0.05 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Condra – Turris9:13
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Legwand – Ryan – Zibanejad3:26
xG 0.20–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Neil – Smith5:18
xG 0.15–0.04 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson14:17
xG 1.01–0.38 (73%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Methot – Ceci2:09
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Phillips – Ceci12:35
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEbbett – Klinkhammer – Megna2:27
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Goc – Klinkhammer – Megna4:01
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Malkin – Comeau – Sutter11:44
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Crosby – Downie – Spaling11:31
xG 0.11–0.40 (21%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Despres10:28
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Martin – Dumoulin12:12
xG 0.20–0.37 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Maatta14:24
xG 0.34–0.83 (29%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).