Sat, Dec 6, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New York Rangers 2, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 212 | 010 | 07 | 229 |
| DET | 010 | 215 | 19 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:31NYRKevin KleinAssists: Kevin Hayes, Carl Hagelin · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 14:48NYRRick NashAssists: Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 14:14DETRiley SheahanAssists: Stephen Weiss, Johan Franzen · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 15:15DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Joakim Andersson, Drew Miller · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 7:40DETDarren HelmGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar, Danny DeKeyser · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:53NYRCarl Hagelin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 9:45DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:35NYRMats Zuccarello: Interference2 min
- P2 8:58DETGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:07DETBrendan Smith: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 9:13DETJohan Franzen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:26DETKyle Quincey: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 12:37DETJonathan Ericsson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Moore – Fast – Miller8:08
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello8:52
xG 0.45–0.65 (41%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider10:18
xG 0.33–0.55 (37%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Stempniak – Hagelin – Hayes8:19
xG 0.43–0.90 (32%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Staal3:21
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh11:41
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Boyle – Staal10:42
xG 0.20–0.42 (32%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Andersson – Glendening5:10
xG 0.86–0.09 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar8:54
xG 0.79–0.22 (78%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
- Weiss – Franzen – Sheahan4:10
xG 0.35–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist5:12
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser10:14
xG 0.62–0.31 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Kronwall – Ericsson13:47
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Kindl – Smith8:43
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).