Sat, Dec 6, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 29 | 010 | 228 |
| FLA | 110 | 214 | 013 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:05FLABrad BoyesAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 11:02BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Cody Hodgson, Josh Gorges · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 12:55FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Nick Bjugstad · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 15:54BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Mike Weber, Torrey Mitchell · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 19:43FLANick BjugstadGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Tomas Fleischmann · Tip-in, 0.28 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:40FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:04BUFJosh Gorges: Holding2 min
- P1 15:16BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:16FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:46FLAShawn Thornton: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Mitchell – Flynn11:32
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- McCormick – Stewart – Deslauriers7:14
xG 0.23–0.42 (35%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Stafford – Hodgson – Foligno9:23
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons13:19
xG 0.11–0.76 (13%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Myers19:08
xG 0.76–0.63 (54%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
- Myers – Zadorov2:45
xG 0.02–0.15 (13%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Benoit – Weber12:40
xG 0.25–0.59 (30%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau13:13
xG 0.95–0.27 (78%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Pirri6:42
xG 0.55–0.30 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Hayes – Trocheck7:17
xG 0.31–0.14 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Boyes – Jokinen – Bergenheim4:49
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Kulikov15:08
xG 0.84–0.36 (70%)attempts 25–8goals 0–2
- Campbell – Ekblad18:12
xG 1.03–0.69 (60%)attempts 17–17goals 3–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson12:42
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).