Sat, Dec 6, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
St. Louis Blues 6, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 316 | 314 | 640 |
| NYI | 312 | 18 | 07 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:57NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 18:01NYIRyan StromeUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 19:39NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Matt Donovan, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–3
- P2 2:36STLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, David Backes · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 4:28STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Chris Butler, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 12:34STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Joakim Lindstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 19:06NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
- P3 4:51STLT.J. OshiePPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Joakim Lindstrom · Slap, 0.02 xG4–4
- P3 13:26STLPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Joakim Lindstrom, Barret Jackman · Snap, 0.09 xG5–4
- P3 17:32STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jori Lehtera, Jaden Schwartz · Snap, 0.11 xG6–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:00STLPaul Stastny: Interference2 min
- P1 7:41STLJori Lehtera: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:14STLChris Butler: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:05NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:59NYINick Leddy: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:42STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:43NYICalvin de Haan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:32NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:32STLRyan Reaves: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:32STLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:19NYIGriffin Reinhart: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:40NYIRyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Backes – Oshie3:45
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ott – Lapierre – Reaves5:10
xG 0.02–0.12 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Berglund9:19
xG 0.76–0.88 (46%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Lindstrom – Stastny – Paajarvi4:32
xG 0.06–0.20 (23%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Lindbohm2:17
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk7:27
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson7:07
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabovski – Grabner9:10
xG 1.09–0.69 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
- Lee – Nelson – Strome7:03
xG 0.63–0.24 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:22
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Kulemin – Tavares12:29
xG 0.24–0.48 (34%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDonovan – Leddy14:34
xG 1.28–0.39 (77%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Strait – Hickey11:24
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- de Haan – Reinhart10:54
xG 0.18–0.71 (21%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).