Sat, Dec 6, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 112 | 19 | 331 |
| NSH | 013 | 07 | 113 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:53CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 2:48CHIMarian HossaGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Brent Seabrook · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 0:34NSHColin WilsonAssists: Victor Bartley, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 18:49CHIMarian HossaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.58 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:00NSHVictor Bartley: Interference2 min
- P1 16:57CHIMichal Rozsival: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:38NSHVictor Bartley: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:38NSHSeth Jones: Interference2 min
- P2 12:38CHIBryan Bickell: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00NSHMike Ribeiro: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad11:30
xG 0.75–0.19 (80%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Richards – Versteeg – Kane11:39
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Bickell – Kane – Shaw3:27
xG 0.27–0.08 (76%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Kruger – Nordstrom10:36
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Rozsival – Keith2:03
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson17:23
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Rozsival – Dahlbeck11:31
xG 0.56–0.64 (47%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Wilson – Smith9:06
xG 0.69–0.36 (66%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Fisher – Nystrom – Beck4:14
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Cullen – Jokinen – Bourque4:15
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Nystrom – Bourque3:32
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm17:45
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi18:43
xG 0.70–0.59 (54%)attempts 15–18goals 0–2
- Bartley – Jones9:23
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).