Sat, Dec 6, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Montréal Canadiens 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 05 | 06 | 16 | 117 |
| DAL | 111 | 212 | 16 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:23DALCody EakinPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 3:09DALTyler SeguinPPGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Trevor Daley · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 19:52DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 2:21MTLSven AndrighettoAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Jiri Sekac · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 18:56DALRyan GarbuttENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:17MTLAlexei Emelin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:13MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P2 1:32MTLMax Pacioretty: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 2:19MTLTomas Plekanec: Interference2 min
- P2 7:09MTLBrandon Prust: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:12DALShawn Horcoff: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:49MTLAlexei Emelin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:49DALRyan Garbutt: Embellishment2 min
- P3 10:01DALErik Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:22MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Andrighetto – Sekac3:39
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Prust – Desharnais3:34
xG 0.09–0.04 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Tangradi – Weise2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Prust – Tangradi3:51
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gonchar – Gilbert6:13
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Emelin – Subban3:26
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Subban2:57
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:21
xG 0.31–0.03 (92%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Benn – Sceviour – Seguin11:06
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Moen – Fiddler5:44
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Spezza – McKenzie9:40
xG 0.20–0.40 (34%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski15:10
xG 0.57–0.25 (69%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Demers – Benn11:57
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Oleksiak9:47
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).