Sun, Dec 7, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 27 | 08 | 11 | 425 |
| WPG | 114 | 18 | 17 | 01 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:02ANARene BourquePPAssists: Patrick Maroon, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 14:28WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 1:33WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.37 xG1–2
- P2 4:35ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Clayton Stoner, Rickard Rakell · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 8:53ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 15:15WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Adam Lowry, Mark Stuart · Backhand, 0.26 xG3–3
- OT 0:53ANAKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Hampus Lindholm · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:09ANAJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:19WPGDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:54ANAJosh Manson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:45WPGMark Stuart: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:57ANAJakob Silfverberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:56WPGBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:19WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:13ANAMatt Beleskey: Interference2 min
- P2 19:49WPGEvander Kane: Checking from behind5 min
- P2 19:49WPGEvander Kane: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:49ANAClayton Stoner: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:56ANASami Vatanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:06ANARene Bourque: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:41WPGPaul Postma: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rakell won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Kesler – Beleskey – Palmieri7:27
xG 0.29–0.32 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell6:23
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Jackman – Thompson – Maroon6:19
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Bourque – Smith-Pelly8:28
xG 0.22–0.60 (27%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen10:03
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Fowler – Manson9:54
xG 0.52–0.61 (46%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Robak – Lindholm11:05
xG 0.34–0.83 (29%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Perreault – Kane7:11
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Halischuk – Lowry – Scheifele7:30
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little9:54
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Frolik – Perreault – Scheifele3:16
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba10:29
xG 0.62–0.30 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot13:42
xG 0.60–0.48 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba2:01
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).