Sun, Dec 7, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 210 | 15 | 07 | 322 |
| CAR | 011 | 112 | 012 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:36DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Darren Helm · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 18:36DETTomas TatarGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Kyle Quincey · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 12:14DETTomas TatarAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 17:11CARJay McClementAssists: Tim Gleason · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:31CARTim Gleason: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 11:07DETJohan Franzen: Interference2 min
- P2 4:31CARAlexander Semin: Holding2 min
- P2 9:27DETBrian Lashoff: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:54DETLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:42DETJohan Franzen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Jurco10:25
xG 0.77–0.24 (76%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar8:02
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 4–10goals 2–0
- Cleary – Miller – Glendening7:24
xG 0.02–0.09 (21%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Weiss – Franzen – Sheahan6:40
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson13:02
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Lashoff9:14
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Quincey – Smith2:07
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Rask – Lindholm6:19
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Skinner8:42
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Tlusty – Nash – Nestrasil6:02
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- McClement – Semin – Nestrasil2:12
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Gleason3:19
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Sekera – Faulk12:04
xG 0.50–0.38 (56%)attempts 16–8goals 0–3
- Hainsey – Jordan10:50
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).