Sun, Dec 7, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Vancouver Canucks 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 216 | 17 | 010 | 00 | 333 |
| OTT | 011 | 322 | 011 | 11 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:10VANRadim VrbataAssists: Ryan Stanton, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 7:15VANKevin BieksaAssists: Radim Vrbata, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 5:02VANBrad RichardsonUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 10:53OTTDavid LegwandPPAssists: Alex Chiasson, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–1
- P2 14:12OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Bobby Ryan, Eric Gryba · Wrap-around, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 18:58OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 1:21OTTErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:26VANLinden Vey: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:35OTTAlex Chiasson: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:47VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
- P2 0:17VANKevin Bieksa: Interference2 min
- P2 4:17OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:17VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:17OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P2 4:17VANDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
- P2 5:11OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min
- P2 6:23VANKevin Bieksa: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 9:26VANRadim Vrbata: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:45VANChris Tanev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:37OTTJared Cowen: Interference2 min
- P3 14:35VANBo Horvat: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Vrbata11:07
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Hansen – Dorsett – Horvat7:00
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Richardson – Vey – Jensen5:41
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Bonino – Vey – Jensen3:27
xG 0.06–0.36 (15%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Stanton8:10
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Sbisa – Tanev2:03
xG 0.05–0.01 (81%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev12:57
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad10:51
xG 0.77–0.25 (75%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0
- Condra – Chiasson – Lazar7:36
xG 0.53–0.16 (76%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone9:35
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Legwand – Neil – Smith6:22
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Cowen5:44
xG 0.49–0.08 (85%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Cowen – Ceci4:56
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Phillips – Ceci3:29
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).