Tue, Dec 9, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Los Angeles Kings 0, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 012 | 014 | 034 |
| BUF | 04 | 07 | 15 | 116 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 4:00BUFTyler EnnisPPGWGAssists: Matt Moulson, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
Penalties (6)
- P2 13:37BUFZemgus Girgensons: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:32LAKTanner Pearson: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:50LAKRobyn Regehr: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:07LAKJustin Williams: Interference2 min
- P3 13:08BUFNikita Zadorov: Elbowing2 min
- P3 18:53LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Brown – Lewis10:06
xG 0.51–0.17 (74%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson11:17
xG 0.34–0.02 (94%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Williams – Kopitar11:06
xG 0.43–0.22 (67%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Richards – King – Nolan7:42
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Martinez14:20
xG 1.05–0.06 (95%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb2:08
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty19:32
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- McCormick – Kaleta – Deslauriers7:46
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Stafford – Hodgson – Foligno10:44
xG 0.17–0.48 (26%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons12:46
xG 0.23–0.63 (27%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Gionta – Mitchell – Flynn11:49
xG 0.02–0.65 (3%)attempts 2–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Benoit – Weber9:19
xG 0.04–0.26 (13%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Zadorov18:18
xG 0.24–0.80 (23%)attempts 6–23goals 0–0
- Gorges – Myers18:23
xG 0.29–0.92 (24%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).