Tue, Dec 9, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Calgary Flames 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 013 | 04 | 116 | 133 |
| TOR | 18 | 113 | 28 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:46TORPeter HollandAssists: David Clarkson, Joffrey Lupul · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 2:51TORJames van RiemsdykPPGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 3:48CGYMarkus GranlundPPAssists: Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 19:20TORPhil KesselENAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.66 xG1–3
- P3 19:56TORMike SantorelliENAssists: Nazem Kadri, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.56 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:55TORDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
- P2 0:57CGYDavid Jones: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:02TORStephane Robidas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:22TORJoffrey Lupul: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 4:15CGYDeryk Engelland: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Jooris13:07
xG 0.81–0.59 (58%)attempts 21–16goals 0–1
- Glencross – Byron – Monahan2:15
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Ferland4:27
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Glencross – Monahan6:20
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Smid7:35
xG 0.97–0.26 (79%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Giordano – Brodie17:11
xG 0.64–0.35 (65%)attempts 27–9goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell17:52
xG 0.49–0.54 (48%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Booth – Smith – Panik4:11
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Lupul – Clarkson – Holland9:04
xG 0.21–0.45 (32%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak13:25
xG 0.22–0.55 (29%)attempts 9–21goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Winnik – Kadri12:31
xG 0.57–0.98 (37%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Rielly13:43
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Franson13:02
xG 0.49–0.52 (48%)attempts 12–19goals 1–0
- Holzer – Gardiner15:31
xG 0.14–1.30 (10%)attempts 7–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).