Tue, Dec 9, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vancouver Canucks 1, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 06 | 15 | 05 | 116 |
| MTL | 07 | 113 | 25 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:56MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Max Pacioretty, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 11:56VANDerek DorsettSHAssists: Jannik Hansen, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 15:44MTLTomas PlekanecGWGAssists: Sven Andrighetto, Jiri Sekac · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 19:59MTLMax PaciorettyENAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:00VANChris Higgins: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:23MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:02VANYannick Weber: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:56VANAlexander Edler: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:46VANBrad Richardson: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:27MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:08VANRyan Stanton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galchenyuk won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Burrows – Horvat3:48
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Higgins – Burrows – Bonino6:15
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Richardson – Vey – Jensen7:11
xG 0.02–0.16 (10%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Hansen – Dorsett – Horvat4:05
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bieksa – Sbisa15:16
xG 0.46–0.73 (39%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
- Edler – Tanev14:44
xG 0.11–0.43 (20%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
- Weber – Stanton10:43
xG 0.02–0.48 (3%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk10:48
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 17–0goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Bournival9:06
xG 0.30–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Prust – Weise6:32
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Andrighetto – Sekac9:10
xG 0.36–0.38 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban14:13
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 19–2goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Emelin13:42
xG 0.66–0.29 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Beaulieu2:15
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).