Tue, Dec 9, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Washington Capitals 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 214 | 17 | 214 | 535 |
| TBL | 110 | 110 | 116 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Tom Wilson, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 13:49TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Victor Hedman, JT Brown · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 14:23WSHMatt NiskanenPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 0:47TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan Callahan, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 4:36WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 10:52WSHTroy BrouwerGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 19:56TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–3
- P3 19:59WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.59 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:58TBLJT Brown: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:53WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:53TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:53TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:11WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:32WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:44WSHNate Schmidt: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson3:49
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov3:46
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Ward – Laich – Fehr4:36
xG 0.07–0.06 (53%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Latta4:32
xG 0.01–0.31 (3%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner7:52
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hillen – Schmidt2:21
xG 0.26–0.28 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Orpik – Carlson6:24
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov4:35
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos4:16
xG 0.12–0.01 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Connolly – Paquette3:36
xG 0.05–0.14 (27%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown3:30
xG 0.15–0.43 (26%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman7:07
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas3:40
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Garrison – Sustr4:18
xG 0.02–0.10 (15%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).