Tue, Dec 9, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Islanders 4, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 311 | 11 | 07 | 419 |
| MIN | 03 | 112 | 415 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:31NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Anders Lee, Griffin Reinhart · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 17:15NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Nick Leddy, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 17:47NYIMatt MartinAssists: Thomas Hickey, Lubomir Visnovsky · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 9:01MINJason PominvillePPAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikko Koivu · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 17:17NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Calvin de Haan · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 2:51MINMikko KoivuAssists: Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 11:03MINErik HaulaAssists: Ryan Carter, Jared Spurgeon · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 11:48MINThomas VanekAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 15:27MINNino NiederreiterGWGAssists: Thomas Vanek, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.36 xG4–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:16NYIRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:22MINJason Pominville: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:26MINErik Haula: Holding2 min
- P2 8:42NYIKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:05NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:05MINKyle Brodziak: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:41MINThomas Vanek: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:03NYIRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:47NYIGriffin Reinhart: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:50MINMarco Scandella: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:19NYIBrock Nelson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:32MINMarco Scandella: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Kulemin – Tavares10:30
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Bailey8:11
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Strome6:57
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Grabner – Lee – Nelson8:33
xG 0.21–0.34 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey15:29
xG 0.89–0.53 (63%)attempts 19–21goals 2–1
- de Haan – Reinhart10:54
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Strait – Leddy12:34
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Pominville – Zucker11:00
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Vanek – Parise – Granlund11:49
xG 0.46–0.43 (52%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Coyle – Niederreiter – Fontaine3:06
xG 0.02–0.02 (50%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Carter – Haula2:04
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin17:53
xG 1.11–0.49 (69%)attempts 19–11goals 3–2
- Scandella – Prosser3:27
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin2:18
xG 0.33–0.05 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).