Tue, Dec 9, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 5, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 212 | 39 | 011 | 532 |
| DAL | 110 | 112 | 06 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:23WPGMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 9:09DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 14:01WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 3:29DALAntoine RousselAssists: Jordie Benn, Jason Demers · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 7:22WPGAdam LowryGWGAssists: Michael Frolik, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 9:41WPGAdam LowryAssists: Adam Pardy, Matt Halischuk · Backhand, 0.31 xG4–2
- P2 19:20WPGMichael FrolikSHAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Stuart · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:58DALJordie Benn: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P1 8:19WPGMark Stuart: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:52WPGJacob Trouba: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:41WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:41DALJason Demers: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:41WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:20DALRyan Garbutt: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:13WPGBen Chiarot: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:26DALJohn Klingberg: Interference2 min
- P3 13:22DALRyan Garbutt: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:52WPGChris Thorburn: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestSlater – Galiardi – Peluso7:47
xG 0.86–0.27 (76%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:36
xG 0.72–0.25 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Halischuk – Lowry8:19
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Frolik – Perreault – Scheifele13:51
xG 0.60–0.42 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot17:38
xG 1.03–0.49 (68%)attempts 22–19goals 2–0
- Stuart – Trouba14:28
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Pardy – Postma10:01
xG 0.75–0.29 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Roussel – Garbutt3:02
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Sceviour – Seguin11:43
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Spezza – McKenzie10:59
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Moen – Fiddler2:37
xG 0.12–0.39 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Benn – Klingberg2:38
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski10:45
xG 0.57–0.64 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Demers3:22
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).