Thu, Dec 11, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 212 | 17 | 02 | 321 |
| BOS | 014 | 110 | 110 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:10CHIKlas DahlbeckAssists: Ben Smith, Marcus Kruger · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 18:43CHIBen SmithAssists: Daniel Carcillo, Marcus Kruger · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–0
- P2 13:19CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
- P2 18:37BOSReilly SmithAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 12:17BOSTorey KrugAssists: Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:32BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:04CHIMichal Rozsival: Holding2 min
- P2 7:57BOSMatt Fraser: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:50BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:04BOSDennis Seidenberg: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:53CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:17CHIAndrew Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:17CHIKlas Dahlbeck: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:17BOSChris Kelly: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:17BOSTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestCarcillo – Smith – Kruger4:29
xG 0.75–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Hossa – Smith – Saad5:39
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Versteeg – Kane11:38
xG 0.62–0.58 (51%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Sharp – Bickell – Shaw10:05
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook15:31
xG 0.94–0.51 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Oduya2:36
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson15:03
xG 0.55–0.79 (41%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith14:00
xG 1.10–0.13 (89%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Kelly – Lucic – Cunningham3:24
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Soderberg – Fraser4:20
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kelly – Cunningham – Fraser3:45
xG 0.08–0.13 (38%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Hamilton17:49
xG 0.87–0.38 (70%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Trotman9:08
xG 0.42–0.08 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug5:57
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).