Thu, Dec 11, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Washington Capitals 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 16 | 04 | 110 | 13 | 323 |
| WSH | 113 | 015 | 110 | 03 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:19WSHEric FehrPPAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 15:36CBJNick FolignoAssists: Brian Gibbons, James Wisniewski · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 9:20WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Matt Niskanen, Karl Alzner · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 10:59CBJKevin ConnautonAssists: James Wisniewski, Cam Atkinson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 4:41CBJNick FolignoPPGWGAssists: Jack Johnson, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:13CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Holding2 min
- P1 2:07CBJMatt Calvert: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 4:27CBJCorey Tropp: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 19:57WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:36WSHNate Schmidt: Holding2 min
- P2 8:37CBJJared Boll: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:37WSHJason Chimera: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:13CBJJames Wisniewski: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:13CBJJames Wisniewski: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:23CBJScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min
- OT 3:03WSHJason Chimera: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fehr won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestSkille – Johansen – Jenner9:44
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson9:05
xG 0.20–0.35 (36%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Boll – Tropp – Chaput6:45
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Foligno – Gibbons9:55
xG 0.23–0.64 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Wisniewski – Connauton12:02
xG 0.43–0.57 (43%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
- Johnson – Savard13:57
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Leopold – Prout13:51
xG 0.42–0.97 (30%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Beagle – Latta6:04
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov6:55
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson10:05
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Ward – Laich – Fehr9:28
xG 0.35–0.61 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner11:02
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Green – Schmidt9:16
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson12:49
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).