Thu, Dec 11, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
New York Islanders 3, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 08 | 214 | 16 | 328 |
| STL | 29 | 08 | 416 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 14:18STLBarret JackmanAssists: Alexander Steen, Maxim Lapierre · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 16:03NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 19:54NYIMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 4:32STLAlexander SteenAssists: T.J. Oshie, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
- P3 15:47STLT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Patrik Berglund, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 17:48STLPaul StastnyPPAssists: David Backes, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–5
- P3 18:16NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Matt Donovan · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–5
- P3 18:56STLJaden SchwartzENAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Jori Lehtera · Tip-in, 0.64 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:15NYIBrian Strait: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:42STLRyan Reaves: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 10:42NYIEric Boulton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:04STLJori Lehtera: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:26STLChris Butler: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:12STLSteve Ott: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:37NYICal Clutterbuck: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:39STLMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:39NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lehtera won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabovski – Clutterbuck9:28
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Boulton – Martin – Strome3:36
xG 0.18–0.08 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Grabner – Lee – Nelson6:31
xG 0.10–0.65 (13%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Okposo – Kulemin – Tavares9:55
xG 0.29–0.90 (25%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Strait – Leddy16:18
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 15–8goals 1–2
- Visnovsky – Hickey15:49
xG 0.63–0.76 (45%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
- Donovan – de Haan15:42
xG 0.32–0.97 (25%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie11:04
xG 1.17–0.47 (72%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Ott – Lapierre – Reaves7:38
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Stastny – Berglund11:01
xG 0.06–0.40 (13%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:17
xG 0.24–0.75 (24%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:57
xG 1.21–0.45 (73%)attempts 17–13goals 0–3
- Butler – Shattenkirk18:13
xG 0.30–0.58 (34%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
- Jackman – Lindbohm12:13
xG 0.34–0.64 (35%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).