Thu, Dec 11, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 216 | 15 | 04 | 0 | 333 |
| COL | 010 | 14 | 27 | 05 | 2 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:21WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.47 xG1–0
- P2 3:55COLMatt DucheneAssists: Jan Hejda, Alex Tanguay · Snap, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 14:40WPGPaul PostmaPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Adam Lowry · Snap, 0.27 xG2–1
- P3 4:32WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 12:55COLJarome IginlaAssists: Alex Tanguay, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 17:18COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Zach Redmond · Snap, 0.50 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. COL Nathan MacKinnon scored
- 2. WPG Mathieu Perreault stopped
- 3. COL Matt Duchene scored
- 4. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:55WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:30WPGOndrej Pavelec: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:54COLDaniel Brière: Holding2 min
- P1 19:34COLNick Holden: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:16WPGAndrew Ladd: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:16COLGabriel Landeskog: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 13:08COLCody McLeod: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:25COLAlex Tanguay: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:57WPGAdam Pardy: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 9:43WPGPaul Postma: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Perreault – Scheifele8:59
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 13–3goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Halischuk – Lowry10:15
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Slater – Galiardi – Peluso5:59
xG 0.24–0.38 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little10:22
xG 0.30–0.92 (25%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Byfuglien – Chiarot14:48
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Pardy – Postma10:16
xG 0.26–0.51 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Stuart – Trouba14:51
xG 0.48–0.80 (38%)attempts 15–8goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon4:31
xG 0.54–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Tanguay – O'Reilly – Duchene4:16
xG 0.33–0.20 (63%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Iginla – Landeskog – MacKinnon5:45
xG 0.33–0.29 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Duchene5:45
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Barrie7:57
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson14:05
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 13–15goals 2–1
- Holden – Redmond2:54
xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).