Fri, Dec 12, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Calgary Flames 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 06 | 013 | 127 |
| PIT | 28 | 011 | 13 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:48PITBlake ComeauAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Robert Bortuzzo · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 4:43PITKris LetangGWGAssists: Simon Despres, Nick Spaling · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 12:15CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Markus Granlund, Jiri Hudler · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–2
- P3 17:13PITRob KlinkhammerAssists: Steve Downie, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:48CGYTJ Brodie: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:48PITJayson Megna: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:38CGYDennis Wideman: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:23PITRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:54CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:00PITJayson Megna: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:52PITJayson Megna: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:23CGYTJ Brodie: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:31CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:06PITPatric Hornqvist: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:33PITSteve Downie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:33CGYBrandon Bollig: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:53PITJayson Megna: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:08CGYBrandon Bollig: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Glencross – Jooris4:28
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Granlund7:43
xG 0.60–0.33 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Stajan – Byron – Bollig2:53
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Raymond – Colborne – Monahan2:45
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie10:59
xG 0.75–0.24 (75%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Engelland – Smid4:51
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell8:06
xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Ebbett – Klinkhammer2:32
xG 0.13–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Goc – Downie – Ebbett2:31
xG 0.09–0.01 (92%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Sutter – Spaling8:45
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Goc – Downie – Klinkhammer2:43
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Bortuzzo3:30
xG 0.47–0.24 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Martin – Letang10:38
xG 0.55–0.39 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Bortuzzo8:54
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 11–4goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).