Fri, Dec 12, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Los Angeles Kings 2, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 014 | 014 | 218 | 246 |
| MTL | 14 | 27 | 39 | 620 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:16MTLJiri SekacPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Tomas Plekanec · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 1:01MTLAndrei MarkovPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 3:45MTLP.K. SubbanGWGAssists: Dale Weise, Manny Malhotra · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 3:35LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Drew Doughty, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 9:47MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: PA Parenteau, Brandon Prust · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 10:48LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Mike Richards · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 13:59MTLSven AndrighettoAssists: Michael Bournival, Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 15:26MTLJiri SekacAssists: Andrei Markov, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:53MTLP.K. Subban: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:12LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:21MTLPA Parenteau: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:55LAKJeff Carter: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:52LAKTrevor Lewis: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:04MTLJiri Sekac: Interference2 min
- P2 12:19MTLPA Parenteau: Holding2 min
- P2 18:44MTLManny Malhotra: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galchenyuk won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – King – Clifford4:38
xG 0.30–0.01 (96%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Lewis – Pearson3:04
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar4:01
xG 0.17–0.08 (69%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Williams – Stoll6:00
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty17:29
xG 0.93–0.39 (71%)attempts 33–12goals 2–2
- Greene – McNabb9:31
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
- Regehr – Martinez13:26
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Plekanec – Andrighetto – Sekac8:18
xG 0.19–0.15 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Weise – Bournival4:09
xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:26
xG 0.41–0.67 (38%)attempts 12–20goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Prust – Desharnais8:58
xG 0.25–0.66 (27%)attempts 5–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban14:55
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 16–18goals 2–1
- Gilbert – Emelin5:40
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Emelin12:39
xG 0.21–0.36 (38%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).