Fri, Dec 12, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 215 | 06 | 04 | 01 | 2 | 326 |
| DET | 212 | 06 | 09 | 04 | 0 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03DETRiley SheahanPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 7:10FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Dave Bolland, Sean Bergenheim · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 13:55FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 19:21DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 2. FLA Vincent Trocheck scored
- 3. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 4. FLA Brandon Pirri scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:43FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:42DETJohan Franzen: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:02DETJohan Franzen: Interference2 min
- P1 17:23FLABrandon Pirri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:26DETTomas Jurco: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:19FLAAaron Ekblad: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:18DETJakub Kindl: Interference2 min
- P3 5:18DETJakub Kindl: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:42FLADerek MacKenzie: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau11:55
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Hayes – Trocheck7:05
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hayes – Pirri – Trocheck2:13
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Pirri5:57
xG 0.05–0.31 (14%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOlsen – Gudbranson10:40
xG 0.54–0.06 (90%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad18:31
xG 0.67–0.96 (41%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Kulikov11:41
xG 0.23–0.74 (24%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Jurco8:54
xG 0.56–0.16 (77%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening8:30
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar8:37
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Weiss – Franzen – Sheahan4:57
xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith14:14
xG 0.76–0.15 (84%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Kindl – Ouellet12:50
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson11:00
xG 0.34–0.75 (31%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).