Sat, Dec 13, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 29 | 112 | 00 | 328 |
| BUF | 211 | 011 | 19 | 11 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:06BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Patrick Kaleta, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 13:05BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Nicolas Deslauriers, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 1:08FLASean BergenheimAssists: Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 4:51FLAJimmy HayesAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 0:57FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Dave Bolland · Snap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 8:27BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Tyler Myers, Andre Benoit · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 0:29BUFNikita ZadorovGWGAssists: Tyler Ennis, Zemgus Girgensons · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 2:45BUFChris Stewart: Interference2 min
- P2 15:49FLASean Bergenheim: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:41FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Bolland7:14
xG 0.62–0.01 (98%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Hayes – Trocheck7:19
xG 0.22–0.16 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 0–2
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Pirri5:25
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau7:57
xG 0.14–1.00 (12%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Kulikov9:35
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Olsen – Gudbranson9:22
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad13:27
xG 0.42–1.54 (21%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Mitchell – Flynn7:26
xG 0.66–0.07 (90%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons7:57
xG 0.77–0.54 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Kaleta – Stewart – Hodgson6:50
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Stafford – Foligno – Deslauriers7:59
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Ristolainen2:22
xG 0.49–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gorges – Myers12:09
xG 0.80–0.34 (70%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Zadorov8:39
xG 0.44–0.43 (50%)attempts 6–4goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).