Sat, Dec 13, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Chicago Blackhawks 2, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 010 | 17 | 18 | 225 |
| NYI | 08 | 117 | 216 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:25CHIDaniel CarcilloAssists: Johnny Oduya, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 14:31NYICal ClutterbuckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 3:46CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Brandon Saad · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 10:10NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: John Tavares, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 11:01NYILubomir VisnovskyGWGAssists: Ryan Strome, Matt Martin · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:46NYIMikhail Grabovski: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:01CHIPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:11CHIJonathan Toews: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:38CHIKris Versteeg: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Bickell – Shaw10:47
xG 0.87–0.57 (60%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Richards – Versteeg – Kane10:44
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad11:21
xG 0.20–0.44 (31%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Carcillo – Smith – Kruger7:14
xG 0.00–0.70 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson3:21
xG 0.11–0.04 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Oduya2:58
xG 0.12–0.17 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Oduya – Seabrook4:09
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabovski – Bailey12:08
xG 0.76–0.38 (67%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Strome8:32
xG 0.83–0.58 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Okposo – Kulemin – Tavares12:06
xG 0.54–0.47 (53%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Grabner – Lee – Nelson8:48
xG 0.38–0.39 (50%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Leddy12:54
xG 1.38–0.36 (79%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey18:18
xG 0.76–0.40 (66%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Donovan – Reinhart15:16
xG 0.61–1.05 (37%)attempts 16–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).