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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 13, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (SO)

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.

CBJ winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PIT09110211061336
CBJ1609210022427

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:02CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Boone Jenner, David Savard · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
  2. P2 15:06PITBlake ComeauAssists: Paul Martin, Rob Klinkhammer · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P3 7:22PITKris LetangSHAssists: Craig Adams, Marcel Goc · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
  4. P3 12:05CBJBoone JennerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–2
  5. P3 17:49CBJJack JohnsonAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, David Savard · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:49PITKris LetangAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. CBJ Cam Atkinson scored
  2. 2. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
  3. 3. CBJ Ryan Johansen scored
  4. 4. PIT Kris Letang scored
  5. 5. CBJ Nick Foligno stopped
  6. 6. PIT Brandon Sutter stopped
Penalties (27)
  1. P1 1:34PITChristian Ehrhoff: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 5:42CBJDavid Savard: Holding2 min
  3. P1 8:39CBJDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 15:13CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Charging2 min
  5. P1 15:13PITSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 15:13CBJDalton Prout: Misconduct10 min
  7. P1 15:13PITSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
  8. P1 15:13PITSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  9. P1 15:13CBJDalton Prout: Roughing2 min
  10. P1 15:13CBJDalton Prout: Roughing2 min
  11. P1 15:13PITBobby Farnham: Fighting5 min
  12. P1 15:13CBJJordan Leopold: Fighting5 min
  13. P2 0:12PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
  14. P2 1:24PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
  15. P2 11:26CBJCorey Tropp: Charging2 min
  16. P2 11:26CBJCorey Tropp: Roughing2 min
  17. P2 11:26PITBryan Rust: Roughing2 min
  18. P2 11:26PITBryan Rust: Roughing2 min
  19. P2 13:52PITSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
  20. P2 13:52CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
  21. P3 7:09PITSimon Despres: Boarding2 min
  22. P3 12:05PITSimon Despres: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
  23. P3 17:10CBJSergei Bobrovsky: Tripping2 min
  24. P3 17:10PITBlake Comeau: Embellishment2 min
  25. P3 19:34PITSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
  26. OT 1:35CBJCam Atkinson: Hooking2 min
  27. OT 3:44PITNick Spaling: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
46% to win54% to win
← PIT attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Sutter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITCBJ
36Shots on goal27
1.8Expected goals2.7
54Shot attempts49
29Faceoffs won32
4Power plays5
50Penalty minutes38
27Hits38
13Blocked shots14
3Giveaways3
4Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. bestMalkin – Comeau – Klinkhammer13:38

    xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0

  2. Adams – Ebbett – Rust2:33

    xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  3. Goc – Downie – Farnham2:51

    xG 0.02–0.07 (25%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

  4. Hornqvist – Sutter – Spaling10:33

    xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestScuderi – Letang2:33

    xG 0.19–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  2. Martin – Letang9:08

    xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0

  3. Ehrhoff – Bortuzzo7:29

    xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. bestBoll – Tropp – Chaput4:39

    xG 0.13–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  2. Skille – Johansen – Jenner9:21

    xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1

  3. Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson8:40

    xG 0.09–0.02 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0

  4. Foligno – Calvert – Atkinson2:24

    xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestJohnson – Savard12:05

    xG 0.50–0.09 (85%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1

  2. Leopold – Prout10:36

    xG 0.12–0.27 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0

  3. Wisniewski – Savard2:30

    xG 0.04–0.20 (16%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.7 xGPIT 1.8 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 94/100 · #62 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.80 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 18% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +48 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.

CBJ winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).