Sat, Dec 13, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 314 | 18 | 431 |
| WPG | 110 | 010 | 08 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:28WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 6:15ANAJakob SilfverbergPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Rickard Rakell · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:29ANARyan GetzlafGWGAssists: Patrick Maroon, Tim Jackman · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 17:54ANANate ThompsonSHAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 18:45ANAAndrew CoglianoENAssists: Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.52 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:08ANARyan Kesler: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 16:53WPGBryan Little: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:20WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:17WPGAnthony Peluso: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:36ANAKyle Palmieri: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:40ANAKyle Palmieri: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:19WPGAdam Pardy: Interference2 min
- P3 12:42WPGJim Slater: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 17:24ANAClayton Stoner: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Jackman – Thompson – Maroon7:56
xG 0.04–0.05 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kesler – Beleskey – Palmieri8:22
xG 0.26–0.34 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell6:26
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Bourque – Smith-Pelly10:43
xG 0.04–0.64 (5%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fowler14:02
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Stoner – Vatanen12:54
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Robak – Lindholm12:39
xG 0.06–0.60 (9%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Perreault – Scheifele8:56
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:44
xG 0.46–0.22 (67%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Halischuk – Kane – Lowry7:14
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Slater – Peluso4:45
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot17:10
xG 1.14–0.37 (75%)attempts 24–10goals 0–1
- Pardy – Postma10:25
xG 0.13–0.03 (79%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Stuart – Byfuglien2:18
xG 0.03–0.03 (45%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).