Sat, Dec 13, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New Jersey Devils 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 213 | 111 | 331 |
| DAL | 213 | 220 | 03 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:29DALTyler SeguinAssists: Erik Cole, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 17:00DALJason SpezzaAssists: Tyler Seguin, Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 4:26NJDJon MerrillPPAssists: Adam Henrique, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 7:46NJDEric GelinasAssists: Jacob Josefson, Steve Bernier · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 14:55DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Antoine Roussel, Ales Hemsky · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 16:52DALShawn HorcoffGWGAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 18:53NJDScott GomezAssists: Adam Henrique, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:36DALCurtis McKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:36NJDJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:16NJDMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:09DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:36NJDTuomo Ruutu: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:57DALCody Eakin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Gomez
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Ruutu – Henrique8:48
xG 0.74–0.19 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Gomez – Cammalleri5:44
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Josefson – Sislo4:29
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Jagr – Gomez – Havlat8:13
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Severson2:36
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Greene – Harrold3:11
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Gelinas3:29
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Morin – McKenzie8:13
xG 0.65–0.08 (89%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour9:55
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Roussel – Eakin11:20
xG 0.61–0.58 (51%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin11:30
xG 0.72–1.13 (39%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Jokipakka16:02
xG 1.13–0.80 (59%)attempts 19–18goals 2–0
- Demers – Benn12:48
xG 0.46–0.53 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg16:24
xG 0.91–1.27 (42%)attempts 26–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).