Sat, Dec 13, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
St. Louis Blues 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 117 | 013 | 12 | 342 |
| COL | 16 | 16 | 013 | 00 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:01COLErik JohnsonPPAssists: Nick Holden, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 15:23STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 8:16STLAlex PietrangeloUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 18:36COLErik JohnsonAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 1:03STLT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Barret Jackman, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 13:34STLRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:23COLJan Hejda: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:58COLJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:58STLBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:35STLAlexander Steen: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:08STLAlexander Steen: Interference2 min
- P2 8:50COLMax Talbot: Kneeing2 min
- P2 13:57COLErik Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:16STLPatrik Berglund: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:47STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P3 6:13COLDaniel Brière: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:11STLRyan Reaves: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:07COLJan Hejda: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie10:42
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Stastny – Berglund5:19
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ott – Lapierre – Reaves5:28
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz7:35
xG 0.10–0.74 (12%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk12:53
xG 0.52–0.05 (92%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Lindbohm8:16
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:37
xG 0.41–1.08 (28%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:13
xG 1.02–0.29 (78%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Cliche – Everberg – Rendulic4:25
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Talbot – McLeod5:02
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Duchene10:32
xG 0.27–0.75 (27%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson14:37
xG 1.06–0.30 (78%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Guenin – Barrie9:30
xG 0.01–0.09 (7%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Holden – Redmond10:21
xG 0.27–0.77 (26%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).