Sun, Dec 14, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 1, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 110 | 05 | 124 |
| CHI | 07 | 111 | 110 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:27CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 8:43CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 12:57CHIBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:58CHIMarian Hossa: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:34CGYDennis Wideman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:57CHIBryan Bickell: Interference2 min
- P3 4:16CHIJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:44CGYKris Russell: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Jooris10:30
xG 0.32–0.47 (40%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Stajan – Raymond – Bouma5:59
xG 0.10–0.33 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Jones – Glencross – Monahan13:11
xG 0.37–0.61 (37%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Byron – Colborne – Granlund10:06
xG 0.21–0.59 (26%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Brodie2:54
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Wideman – Russell17:49
xG 0.67–0.62 (52%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Engelland – Diaz8:14
xG 0.02–0.36 (5%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Versteeg – Kane12:59
xG 0.99–0.25 (80%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad11:18
xG 0.60–0.13 (82%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Sharp – Bickell – Shaw10:58
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Carcillo – Smith – Kruger7:33
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson17:53
xG 0.97–0.28 (78%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Erixon9:54
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook18:03
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 25–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).