Mon, Dec 15, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New Jersey Devils 2, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 212 | 07 | 07 | 02 | 1 | 228 |
| NYI | 07 | 111 | 113 | 02 | 2 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:15NJDMarek ZidlickyPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Jaromir Jagr · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 15:20NJDScott GomezAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 1:51NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Ryan Strome, Mikhail Grabovski · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 10:45NYIMatt MartinAssists: Casey Cizikas, Calvin de Haan · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. NJD Tuomo Ruutu stopped
- 3. NYI Kyle Okposo scored
- 4. NJD Scott Gomez scored
- 5. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 6. NJD Damon Severson stopped
- 7. NYI Ryan Strome stopped
- 8. NJD Marek Zidlicky stopped
- 9. NYI Josh Bailey scored
- 10. NJD Jacob Josefson stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:24NYIAnders Lee: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:22NJDMichael Ryder: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:44NJDJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:00NYIJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:00NJDSeth Helgeson: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:11NYIJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
- OT 2:17NJDScott Gomez: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Gomez – Zajac13:38
xG 1.28–0.49 (72%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Havlat – Bernier – Gionta9:14
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Sestito – Josefson8:49
xG 0.12–0.57 (17%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Ryder – Ruutu – Henrique12:05
xG 0.00–0.63 (0%)attempts 2–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Helgeson8:22
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Gelinas2:48
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Gelinas – Merrill7:28
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:20
xG 0.76–0.30 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Strome11:23
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Kulemin – Tavares4:14
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Bailey2:57
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Leddy15:03
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Donovan – Reinhart13:34
xG 0.71–0.82 (46%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey14:31
xG 0.37–0.95 (28%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).