Mon, Dec 15, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 112 | 08 | 110 | 230 |
| PIT | 15 | 210 | 111 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:09PITBrandon SutterSHAssists: Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 19:33TBLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–1
- P2 2:55PITBryan RustAssists: Andrew Ebbett · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 19:26PITSteve DowniePPGWGAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 7:47PITBrian DumoulinAssists: Steve Downie, Nick Spaling · Snap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 16:56TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:47PITKris Letang: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:07TBLBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:07TBLBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:07PITBobby Farnham: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:44TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:45PITSteve Downie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:52PITBlake Comeau: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:17TBLRyan Callahan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:27TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Kucherov8:39
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Brown – Paquette – Drouin7:08
xG 0.30–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Connolly7:20
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Killorn – Brown – Paquette2:35
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman13:17
xG 1.02–0.39 (72%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Garrison – Sustr12:54
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Carle – Barberio10:52
xG 0.17–0.44 (28%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Comeau – Rust6:30
xG 0.32–0.23 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Hornqvist – Sutter – Spaling8:10
xG 0.49–0.43 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Adams – Ebbett – Klinkhammer2:00
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Goc – Downie – Farnham7:01
xG 0.04–0.11 (28%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang10:22
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Letang2:24
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Dumoulin10:59
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).