Tue, Dec 16, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 27 | 19 | 323 |
| PHI | 110 | 06 | 08 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:19PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Mark Streit, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 1:50TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 6:34TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Ryan Callahan, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 19:18TBLValtteri FilppulaENAssists: Cedric Paquette, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:33PHILuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:17PHIWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:03TBLBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:27PHIBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:43TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:55TBLJonathan Drouin: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:06PHINick Schultz: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Stamkos – Drouin12:10
xG 0.62–0.43 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Brown – Paquette6:14
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Johnson – Kucherov11:07
xG 0.55–0.56 (50%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Connolly9:55
xG 0.19–0.69 (22%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman11:26
xG 0.83–0.50 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Carle – Barberio12:48
xG 0.60–0.36 (63%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Garrison – Sustr15:54
xG 0.13–0.33 (28%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl10:45
xG 1.38–0.21 (87%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier11:11
xG 0.16–0.34 (32%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Rinaldo – Bellemare3:43
xG 0.02–0.26 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Laughton9:17
xG 0.24–0.65 (27%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Coburn12:50
xG 1.33–0.39 (77%)attempts 19–5goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Schenn14:25
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Streit – Grossmann13:26
xG 0.29–1.29 (18%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).