Tue, Dec 16, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Anaheim Ducks 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 017 | 114 | 111 | 242 |
| TOR | 111 | 15 | 411 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:12TORTyler BozakAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Phil Kessel · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 1:31TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Korbinian Holzer, Peter Holland · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 13:13ANASami VatanenSHAssists: Ryan Kesler, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 4:37TORDavid BoothGWGUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 5:28TORNazem KadriAssists: Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 8:35ANARyan KeslerAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Matt Beleskey · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 15:23TORPhil KesselPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 18:17TORPhil KesselAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:16TORPeter Holland: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P1 16:11TORJames van Riemsdyk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:58ANAJakob Silfverberg: Interference2 min
- P2 12:44ANATim Jackman: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:10TORDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:10ANARyan Getzlaf: Embellishment2 min
- P3 15:04ANAPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 17:21TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:21ANATim Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:21ANATim Jackman: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:21TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:21ANATim Jackman: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Rakell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell8:34
xG 0.82–0.21 (80%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Kesler – Beleskey – Palmieri7:59
xG 0.46–0.05 (90%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Jackman – Thompson – Maroon4:17
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Maroon – Smith-Pelly4:42
xG 0.34–0.09 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen16:45
xG 1.91–0.27 (88%)attempts 36–7goals 1–2
- Lovejoy – Fowler15:24
xG 1.12–0.45 (71%)attempts 23–18goals 0–1
- Fistric – Lindholm13:45
xG 0.28–1.52 (15%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Lupul – Clarkson – Holland11:24
xG 0.52–0.53 (50%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:18
xG 0.51–0.79 (39%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Booth – Smith – Panik5:48
xG 0.03–0.40 (7%)attempts 3–13goals 1–0
- Santorelli – Winnik – Kadri11:16
xG 0.19–0.85 (18%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Robidas – Rielly16:54
xG 0.48–0.91 (34%)attempts 12–25goals 2–0
- Holzer – Gardiner13:31
xG 0.33–0.97 (26%)attempts 11–21goals 2–1
- Phaneuf – Franson13:11
xG 0.27–0.97 (22%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).