Tue, Dec 16, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 04 | 011 | 111 | 126 |
| MTL | 113 | 16 | 210 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:15MTLBrandon PrustAssists: David Desharnais, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 8:33MTLAlex GalchenyukGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Andrei Markov · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 6:47CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Elias Lindholm, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 16:41MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 17:50MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:01CARZach Boychuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:03MTLSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:25CARElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:04MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:07CARJustin Shugg: Interference2 min
- P2 14:27MTLPA Parenteau: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:57MTLAndrei Markov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:34CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:10CARChris Terry: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Nash – Boychuk3:25
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm9:37
xG 0.47–0.35 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
- Dwyer – Staal – Gerbe5:50
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- McClement – Malone – Shugg4:11
xG 0.01–0.11 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Harrison14:07
xG 0.78–0.43 (64%)attempts 19–7goals 0–2
- Gleason – Jordan9:30
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
- Sekera – Faulk13:00
xG 0.26–0.60 (30%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk8:35
xG 1.12–0.23 (83%)attempts 13–8goals 3–0
- Parenteau – Prust – Desharnais9:39
xG 0.68–0.30 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Malhotra – Bournival – Andrighetto5:17
xG 0.03–0.15 (17%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Weise – Sekac8:20
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Beaulieu8:00
xG 0.76–0.06 (93%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Emelin2:13
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban15:59
xG 0.88–0.85 (51%)attempts 16–16goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).