Tue, Dec 16, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Boston Bruins 2, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 09 | 115 | 16 | 05 | 0 | 235 |
| NSH | 09 | 111 | 113 | 07 | 1 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:04BOSMilan LucicAssists: Chris Kelly, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P2 19:30NSHMike FisherPPAssists: Shea Weber, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 1:31NSHMike RibeiroAssists: James Neal, Ryan Ellis · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 3:28BOSReilly SmithAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NSH Derek Roy scored
- 2. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 3. NSH James Neal stopped
- 4. BOS Reilly Smith stopped
- 5. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 6. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:23BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:24NSHColin Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:56NSHDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:53BOSDennis Seidenberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:59BOSMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:50NSHColin Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:49BOSMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Lucic – Cunningham10:48
xG 0.68–0.52 (57%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith11:39
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Campbell – Paille – Griffith4:21
xG 0.01–0.04 (12%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Soderberg – Fraser9:15
xG 0.30–0.44 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug7:11
xG 0.74–0.23 (77%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Trotman – Krug5:16
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Trotman8:04
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fisher – Wilson11:16
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Roy – Smith – Jarnkrok5:42
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg11:39
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Nystrom – Bourque5:26
xG 0.18–0.38 (32%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Ekholm2:21
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Jones4:15
xG 0.13–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ellis – Jones2:50
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).