Tue, Dec 16, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Buffalo Sabres 1, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 05 | 011 | 128 |
| WPG | 08 | 312 | 216 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:16BUFNikita ZadorovPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Cody Hodgson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 9:31WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Grant Clitsome, Evander Kane · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 11:35WPGMichael FrolikSHGWGAssists: Jim Slater · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 14:17WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 1:11WPGEvander KanePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–4
- P3 12:39WPGChris ThorburnAssists: Anthony Peluso, Mark Stuart · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:04BUFBrian Flynn: Interference2 min
- P1 12:30WPGGrant Clitsome: Interference2 min
- P1 12:41WPGAdam Pardy: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:34WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:31BUFNikita Zadorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:24WPGMark Scheifele: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:31BUFAndre Benoit: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:06WPGMark Stuart: Interference2 min
- P3 16:06WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:06BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:06BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:02BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grigorenko won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKaleta – Stewart – Hodgson2:24
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Flynn8:50
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kaleta – Stewart – Foligno2:21
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons9:36
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Strachan – Meszaros7:02
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Myers – Zadorov14:10
xG 0.44–0.64 (41%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Strachan – Myers3:39
xG 0.01–0.23 (5%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Perreault – Scheifele10:17
xG 0.68–0.27 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:19
xG 0.54–0.14 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Peluso5:17
xG 0.37–0.01 (97%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Halischuk – Kane – Lowry10:45
xG 0.43–0.47 (48%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Clitsome14:15
xG 0.88–0.32 (73%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Stuart – Postma13:24
xG 0.74–0.37 (66%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot15:32
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).