Tue, Dec 16, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Minnesota Wild 3, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 08 | 212 | 329 |
| CHI | 09 | 321 | 29 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:49MINThomas VanekAssists: Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 8:10CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Kris Versteeg, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 12:19CHIMarian HossaAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 16:21CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Ben Smith · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 7:13MINNino NiederreiterUnassisted · Backhand, 0.37 xG2–3
- P3 10:03MINMarco ScandellaAssists: Christian Folin, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 16:32CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
- P3 19:46CHIBen SmithENAssists: Patrick Kane, Marcus Kruger · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:24CHIPatrick Sharp: Interference2 min
- P2 3:43MINNate Prosser: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:45CHITim Erixon: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:27CHIMarcus Kruger: Holding2 min
- P3 7:13CHIMarian Hossa: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 11:33MINBrett Sutter: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:25MINErik Haula: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Parise – Granlund10:54
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Brodziak – Sutter – Haula6:30
xG 0.18–0.18 (51%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Zucker11:36
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Coyle – Niederreiter – Fontaine9:09
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin19:18
xG 0.99–0.48 (67%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
- Falk – Prosser6:15
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Scandella – Folin16:07
xG 0.61–1.38 (31%)attempts 16–16goals 1–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Bickell – Shaw8:02
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad9:17
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Carcillo – Smith – Kruger6:17
xG 0.03–0.19 (14%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
- Richards – Versteeg – Kane13:35
xG 0.62–1.01 (38%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Seabrook9:59
xG 1.25–0.26 (83%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- Rozsival – Erixon4:08
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Rundblad6:44
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).