Wed, Dec 17, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 2, Vancouver Canucks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 117 | 17 | 229 |
| VAN | 011 | 04 | 012 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:53DALColton SceviourGWGAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Vernon Fiddler · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 19:34DALAntoine RousselENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:10DALCurtis McKenzie: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:10DALCurtis McKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:10VANBrad Richardson: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:30DALJason Demers: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:30VANDerek Dorsett: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:30VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:59DALTrevor Daley: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:36DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:20VANBrad Richardson: Holding2 min
- P3 8:26DALJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Spezza – McKenzie6:37
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Morin – Roussel5:32
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour8:46
xG 0.28–0.22 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Roussel – Eakin3:12
xG 0.05–0.00 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Benn12:06
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg14:44
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Daley – Jokipakka14:03
xG 0.38–0.39 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Burrows – Bonino6:19
xG 0.26–0.10 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata9:50
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Higgins – Bonino – Vey3:42
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Richardson – Matthias – Vey5:52
xG 0.05–0.14 (27%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Sbisa8:53
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev17:34
xG 0.47–0.48 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Stanton13:55
xG 0.18–0.75 (20%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).